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(   - #+d)e   4#2!XOXOXO   _   c;XzXXO;r X;Xz;XzX ;rTheoilcrashandyou:#;r X;Xz# E )*RB>z<x 0 @ H@E<xX<x   Oilshortagessoon   Thisdocumentrevealsthatwithintenyears: c Oilextractionfromwellswillbephysicallyunabletomeetglobaldemand(theevidenceisfromtheoil    industryitself)Alternativeenergysourceslikenuclearandnaturalgaswillfallfarshortofcompensatingforexpectedshortagesofoil.Thereissimplynotenoughtimetoconvertovertothem.Massivedisruptionstotransportationandtheeconomyareexpectedaround2010whenthefinalpeakofproductionofallpetroleumliquids(globally)isfollowedbydecline. c Mostsignificanteffects: c    Gradual,permanentcutoffoffuelfortransportandforindustrialmachinery.Globaltradewillgreatly u  decline.Agriculture(foodproduction)dependsheavilyonfertilizersandmadefromoil.Shortagesof500,000othergoodsmadefromoil.Therefore,reductionofvirtuallyallbusinessandgovernmentactivity. c Difficultyofadapting: Amajorpartoftheproblemisthatexistingequipmentisdesignedonlyforoil  fuels.Forexample,theworld's11,000airlinerscannotrunonnaturalgas,nuclearorcoal. Byproductsofoil: Costanddecreasingavailabilityof500,000knownusesofoil:Fertilizers(farms/food  supply),medicines,plastics,insulation,computers,asphalt,inks&_toners_,paints,glues,solvents,antiseptics,golfballs,CDstrashbags,nailpolish,detergents,chewinggum,etc. Hiddenproblem: Notonlywilltheoilsupplydwindle,buttheshortagesandclimbingpriceswillobstruct x industryasitattemptstoconvertsocietytootherformsofenergy. Proofofimpendingshortages: Muchuninformedliteraturesaysoilisplentifulandthatbetter |! extractionwillmaintainadequatesupplyfordecadesyet.However,thissheetreveals: c̄misleadingreportingofoilinventories,byoilextractingcountries.̄aclear,fortyyeartrendoflessandlessdiscoveryofoilanddwindlingoutputsfromthesteadilyemptyingwells. c Alternativeenergysourceswillnotpreventshortages: Alternativefuelshavebeenstudied.As  ' replacementsforoiltheyaregrosslyinadequatebothinquantityandversatilityofuse.Thereisinsufficienttimetopreventheavyimpacts When,andhowbad: Yearwhenglobaloilsupplyfirstfailstomeetglobaldemand:about2009. |"+ Conventional"easytoextract"oilpeaksaround2005butnonconventionalwillfailabout2009)SeeInternationalEnergyAgencytablesat_      http://208.240.253.224/_campbell_._htm_ 4       #I- )+""""TD@z<x 0 @@E&xX&x      From_Colin_ԀJ.CampbellandJeanH._Laherrre_,atendof1999.Theyhaveeachworkedintheoil &!1 industryformorethan40years.CampbellcompletinghisPh.D.ingeologyattheUniversityofOxford.HeworkedforTexacoasanexplorationgeologistandthenat_Amoco_ԀaschiefgeologistforEcuador.Hisdecadelongstudyofglobaloilproductiontrendshasledtotwobooksandnumerouspapers.Heworkedonbehalfof_Petroconsultants_ԀofGeneva,a_consultancy_ԀwhosedatabaseisthemostcomprehensiveavailablefordataonoilresourcesthatexistsoutsideofcontinentalNorthAmerica,andisusedasa'bible'byallinternationaloilcompanies.The_IEA_Ԁisaninternationalbodysetupundertreatyby_OECD_ԀincludingUSAtodealspecificallywiththeissueofoildepletion.Aconservativeorganization,ithashoweverindirectlyconfirmedCampbell'sassessmentinitsWorldEnergyOutlook1998.(See"_IEA_"slideexplanationat4            http://www._hubbertpeak_.com/_campbell_/commons._htm_4            ݀)_Laherrre_'s 1-(: earlyworkonseismicrefractionsurveyscontributedtothediscoveryofAfrica'slargestoilfield.AtTotal, -?); aFrenchoilcompany,_Laherrre_Ԁsupervisedexplorationtechniquesworldwide.E4         Rateofdeclineofglobaloilsupply: from20093%everyyear(permanently).FromanaddressbyDr. E _Colin_ԀCampbell(seeabove)attheBritishHouseofCommonsonJuly7th1999.Readtheaddressandaccompanying_PowerPoint_Ԁslideshowat      ݀j4            http://www._hubbertpeak_.com/Campbell/commons._htm_ 4      ݀Also,Dr. r William_Rees_,articleinGlobeandMail(Canadiannationalnewspaper),      ݀29March,2000"4      Several 0 recentstudiesprojectworldoilproductiontopeakby2013orsooner,possiblyassoonas2007.EventhenecessarilyconservativeInternationalEnergyAgencyinitsWorldEnergyOutlook,1998concurredforthefirsttimethatglobaloutputcouldtopoutbetween2009and2012anddeclinerapidlythereafter._IEA_Ԁdataprojectanearly20percentshortfallofsupplyrelativetodemandby2020thatwillhavetobemadeupoffrom"unidentifiedunconventional"sources(_i_.e.,knownoilsandsdepositshavealreadybeentakenintoaccount)."WilliamE._Rees_ԀisanecologicaleconomistandprofessorintheUniversityofBritishColumbia'sSchoolofCommunityandRegionalPlanning. Durationofdecline: Forever.ChevronLearningCenter"Geologistsgenerallyagreethatcrudeoilwas   formedovermillionsofyearsfromtheremainsoftinyaquaticplantsandanimalsthatlivedinancientseas."      http://www.chevron.com/explore/science/crude4      /Also,"MostNorthSeaandMiddleEastOilwas $t  formed140millionyearsago.MostUSGulfCoastMexicoVenezuela90millionyearsago".Dr._Colin_Campbell(above),orreadabouttheformationofpetroleumat:      http://www._hubbertpeak_.com/Campbell/commons._htm_s!4      .) ^   Barrelsconsumedgloballyperyear: (_IEA_Ԁdatabase,1999.      http://208.240.253.224/_campbell_._htm_#4        Increasingby1.5%everyyear.(Campbell      http://www._hubbertpeak_.com/Campbell/commons._htm_u$4      ݀)"You b alwaysrunintotheproblemofwhatisbeingmeasured.Conventionaloilonlyorallliquids.Alsowithdiscovery.Excluding_deepwater_Ԁthereislongdownwardtrendofdiscoverytoabout6Gb/anow,saveforaspikethisyearofabout1520withtheCaspian_Kashagan_ԀEastdiscovery.Withthe_deepwater_(apartfromthespike)itisabout11Gb,withthe_deepwater_Ԁtrendstillrising."(_Colin_ԀCampbell,privateEmail,June2000)  m@E9)%`z0,0  `4E 0  0   m m@E9)%`z00  `4E t0  0  Y ) m      m@E9)%`z00  `4Ez t0  0  / ) m  / / (#(# / / / /  / / / /  / / / /  / / / /  / / / /  / / / /  / / / /  (#(#/ /   Barrelsofnewoildiscoveredperyear: 6billionin1999,frombook:TheComingOilCrisis,p.52by &_!1 _Colin_ԀCampbell,basedontheoilindustry'sbiggestandmostrespecteddatabase.Itisdescribedatas"ThemostextensivepetroleumdatabaseintheworldcoveringE&Pcontracts,exploratorywells,developmentdrilling,oilandgasfields,geologicalprovinces,geophysicalsurveys,companies,installationsandculturalfeatures".Seniorindustrygeologists'viewsonCampbell&_Laherrre_'sargumentsaresummarizedinthePetroleumReview(Cope1998).Also,commentbyoildepletion )%6 researcher,Brian_Fleay_Ԁ(refs.below):"Therewasgeneralacceptanceofthesubstanceoftheirarguments;thatthebulkofremainingdiscoverywillbeineversmallerfieldswithinestablishedprovinces.Butmostthought400billionbarrelsmightremaintobediscovered.However,Campbellpointsoutthatitwouldtake35yearstofindtheir210billionbarrelsatpresentdiscoveryrates.Hesayspresentconventionaloilwilldriveproductionoverthepeakitistoolatefortheseotheroptionstoalter |-(; thetimingofthepeak."Mylatestestimateisthatthereare151Gbyettofindconventionaloilexcluding_deepwater_,polarand_NGL_"(_Colin_ԀCampbell,June2000inprivateEmail)      BrianJ._Fleay_,B_Eng_.,M_Eng_.Sc.,_MIEAust_,_MAWWA_,presentingpaperattheCharteredInstituteof  TransportinAustralia,NationalSymposium,_Launceston_ԀTasmania67November1998._Fleay_Ԁisaretiredcivilengineerwhoworkedforover30yearsattheWaterAuthorityofW.Australia.Heiscurrentlyanassociateof_Murdock_ԀUniversity'sInstituteofScience&TechnologyPolicyand_convenor_ԀoftheEconomicPolicyWorkingGroupfortheGreensWA.   _31       The_Ԁgraphand_Fleay_'spaperareat      _http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/climaxingoil.html#4.25       _Ԁand  @  _Fleay_ԀhasaWebsiteat      _http://www.oilcrisis.com/g7       _ԀshowingsupportingarticlesfromtheScientific    American(March98),theLondonObserver(July98.) IsThereaLotMoreUndiscoveredOil?: 80percentofoilbeingproducedtodayisfromfields    discoveredbefore1973.Inthe1990'soildiscoveriesaveragedaboutsevenbillionbarrelsofoilayear,onlyonethirdofusage.Thediscoveryrateofmultibillionbarrelfieldshasbeendecliningsincethe1940's,thatofgiant(500millionbarrel)fieldssincethe1960's.In1938,fieldswithmorethan10millionbarrelsmadeup19%ofallnewdiscoveries,butby1948theproportionhaddroppedtoonly3%.Mostoilfields_arelessthantenmillionbarrels,andtenmillionbarrelswillsupplytheUnitedStateswithlessthanaday'sworthofenergy.Largeoilfieldsmakeupadisproportionatepartoftheworld'soilsupply.Thetenlargestoilfieldscontainafifthoftheworld'soilreserves;twentymorebringthetotaltoathird.500largefieldscontaintwothirdsoftheworld'sknownoil.Theremainderisdistributedamong20,000ormoresmalloilfields.Thefactthatdiscoveriesoflargefieldsaregettingrarermeansonlyonething:wearerunningoutofnewoiltofind.From:      http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/202ovhds/resource.htm=       ݀Steven n Dutch,Professor,CollegeofEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofWisconsinGreenBay.Resumeat      http://www._uwgb_._edu_/_dutchs_/resume._htm_G?       ݀  _Blockgraphsofoilfieldsizes:      http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/202ovhds/resource.htm A       _ /  BarrelsofOil_Ԅ_Ԁdiscovered:extracted:consumed;       _http://users.knsi.com/~tbender/ivanhoe.htmlB       _ $t  USA: (15yr.197719915Billion: h 45Billion:  92Billion c k  World: (10yr.198291)91Billion:221Billion:221Billion c *z        _http://users.knsi.com/~tbender/ivanhoe.htmlD       "The_ԀUSGeologicalSurveynowcomesoutwithabsurdly q" exaggeratedclaims.Theysay724GBtobefoundbetween19952025.Theyarealreadyshort100GBfiveyearsintothestudyperiod,butstilltheysayit."_Colin_ԀCampbell,inprivateEmail,June2000. _Pre_Ԅ1973discoveredoilinusetoday: "Atleast70%ofpresentglobalsupplywasdiscoveredbefore 2& 1973.Thesefieldsarenowinterminaldecline"._Colin_ԀCampbell.Alsostatedas80%StevenDutch,NaturalandAppliedSciences,      UniversityofWisconsinGreenBay  ( _KH       _      _http://gbms01.uwgb.edu/~dutchs/202ovhds/resource.htmI       _Ԁ m!)  Ratio ofoilconsumedtooildiscovered eachyear:Fourtoone.Typicallysixbillionbarrels "+ discovered,and23billionconsumed,asindicatedabove. Proportionofenergyprovidedbyoil: "Oilcurrentlyaccountsforabout40percentofworld $ . commercialenergysupplies"_IEO99_,a1999reportbytheUSDepartmentofEnergyandtheInternationalEnergyAgency.See:      ݀_http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo99/oil.htmlL       _ 3&!0  The"investmoretofindit"idea: 210billionbarrelslefttodiscoverand1000billionbarrelsleftto x'"2 extract.From:      _http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/04discoverandprodn.htmlsN       _ԀSeniorindustry 7(#3 geologists'viewsonCampbell&_Laherrre_'sargumentsaresummarizedinthePetroleumReview (E$4 (Cope1998).Therewasgeneralacceptanceofthesubstanceoftheirarguments;thatthebulkof )%5 remainingdiscoverywillbeineversmallerfieldswithinestablishedprovinces.Althoughmostgeologiststhought400billionbarrelsmightremaintobediscovered,Campbellpointsoutthatitwouldtake35yearstofindtheir210billionbarrelsatpresentdiscoveryrates.Hesayspresentconventionaloil(_i_.e.easy,notheavyoil,ordeepwateroil)willdriveproductionoverthepeak.Thenoilscarcitywillmaketheminingofthoseotheroptionsprohibitivelyenergycostly,andtheactualglobaloilpeakdatewill i-(: thereforenotbedelayedbythem).Afteracenturyofexploration,theearth'sgeologyandoilresourcesaregenerallywellknown.Thisisindicatedbythe40yeardeclineindiscoveryofoil.Noamountofmoneywillcreateoilthattheplanetdoesnotcontain. Forecastsignoreextraction: "Formanyyearsgeologistsandoilcompanieshavepublishedestimates q ofthetotalamountofcrudeoilthatwillultimatelyberecoveredfromtheearthoveralltime.Remarkably,theseassessmentsofEstimatedUltimatelyRecoverable(_EUR_)oilhavevariedlittleoverthepasthalfcentury.Forthepast25years,withonlytwoexceptions,estimateshaverangedfromaround1800billionbarrelstoaround2400billionbarrels.DavidWoodward,GeneralManagerofthe_Abu_Ԁ_Dhabi_ԀCompanyfor_Onshore_ԀOilOperations,alsoanalyzed40estimatesofultimatelyrecoverableoil,allpublishedbetween1975and1993.AccordingtoWoodward,"thereisafairdegreeofconsistencyamongtheestimates,withtheaveragevaluebeing2000billion_bbl_Ԁ[barrels]andmost[70percent]fallingintherangeof2000to2400billion_bbl_."WorldResourcesInstitute:      http://www.wri.org/wri/climate/finitoil/eur_Ԅoil.htmleX/       _  p   NumberofoilwellsinUSA,elsewhere: "Bytheendofthe19thcenturytherewereabout600,000oil e  wellsinmorethan100countries."The_Maguire_ԀEnergyInstitute,at:      http://_maguireenergy_._cox_._smu_._edu_/resources/learning/_LCCh12_._html_Ԁ_uZ/       "Currently,_ԀtheUShasapproximately 2  600,000oilwellsinoperation.Nearly500,000ofthosewellsproducelessthanthreebarrelsaday"fromThe(USGovernment)InternationalTradeResourceCenterat:      http://www.itds.treas.gov/ITDS/ITTA/oilprofile.htm"_8]/       Most_Ԁfieldsonlyyieldabout35%oftheoilinplace, l whilethebestachieve60%."Brian_Fleay_Ԁ      _http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/climaxingoil.html#4.2^/       _ * "Percentagerecovery2060%.Itrelatesprimarilytothedensityoftheoil.Yougetlessfromaheavyoilthanalightonebecauseitsticksinthereservoir."(_Colin_ԀCampbell,privateEmail,June2000.)),""""TD@z<x 0 @@EcxXcx"Technologywillsolveit"idea Challengetotechnology: Tocompensatefortheexpected3%oildecline(ateventoday's22billion %u barrelsayear),createandinstall,byyear2009,permanentsuppliesofportableenergy,equivalentto660millionbarrelsofoilayear.Thenasoilkeepsdecliningforever,increasethisnewenergyituntilitreplaces40%oftheworld'senergysupply(22billionbarrelsayear)OR...reduceenergydemandequivalentlyastheglobalpopulationincreasesbyalmostaquartermillionpeopleeveryday. Population: "Eachyear,about81millionpeopleareaddedtotheworld'spopulation_Ԅ_Ԁtheequivalentof c# addingacountrythesizeoftheUnitedStateseverythreeyearsoronethesizeofIndiaeverytenyears.Anddemographersexpecttheworld'spopulationtocontinuetogrowforatleastthenext50to100years."UnionOfConcernedScientists,at      _http://www.ucsusa.org/resources/pop.faq.html#1je/       _Ԁ &  The"betterefficiency"idea: Increasesinefficiencyusuallyfailtoreduceconsumption(e.g.more  3( m.p.g.causespeopletojusttravelmoreandbuytwocars)unlesstheusersarepersonallydeterminedtoreducetheirconsumption.WhyEnergyConservationFailsbyHerbert_Inhaber_,1997. `"*       _http://info.greenwood.com/books/1567201/1567201202.htmlh/       _Ԁ #n+ ЁWhataboutnuclearpower?Nuclearis currentlybeingabandonedglobally: (_IEA_Ԁreference: &="1 h      _ttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo99/nuclear.htmli/       )_ԀNuclear'sabilitytosoftentheoilcrashisvery '"2 problematic:      _http://www.uilondon.org/sym/1997/bourd.htm3k/       _ԀNuclear wastedisposal isthemajor,still j(#3 unresolvedproblem,especially breederreactorsproducingplutonium anuclearweapon/terroristraw ))y$4 material, contaminatingfor24,000years ABCNews,Feb.1999:"...nearly40,000tonsofhighly )8%5 radioactiveusedreactorfuelnowkeptatnuclearpowerplants."_      http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/science/DailyNews/yuccawaste990225.htmlm/       ݀ e+&7  HalflifeofPlutonium239:       ThePhysicsFactbooko/       ݀19982000byGlennElert ,'9       http://hypertextbook.com/facts/JaniceChing.shtmlp/        i-(:  Abandonedreactor: "MegadoseofRadioactivity.Althoughitnolongercontainsitsuraniumfuel,the  Trojanreactorvesselcontains15timesasmuchradioactivityasthoseobjects,accordingtostateofficials.Itwasshutdownin1993,twodecadesearlierthanplanned,afteraseriesofproblemsincludingafaultysafetysystemthatdrewfederalfines,anaccidentalreleaseofradioactivegasesandcrackedsteamtubes.Nearly800spentbuthighlyradioactiveuraniumfuelrodassembliesremovedfromthereactorovertheyearsremaininstorageattheTrojansite.      http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/science/DailyNews/reactor990808.html{s       ݀ % u  Past accidents: .Riskofmore,andterrorism.(Over360accidentsat: j        http://www.greenpeace.org/~comms/nukes/chernob/rep02.htmlt       ݀) ) y   Manymorereactorswouldbeneeded: Tonsofradioactivematerialswouldbetransportedthrough n   populatedareas:DeanEdwinAbrahamsonTheChallengeofGlobalWarming, - }        http://www.islandpress.org/books/Detail.tpl?cart=30593902472653&SKU=0933280866v       ݀p.27says:  ;  "Thenuclearweaponsproliferationriskwhichwouldaccompanythereplacementoffossilfuelwithnuclearfissionisstaggering....[That]wouldrequirebetween7,000and8,000largenuclearpowerplants,eachofwhich[ifbreeders]wouldproduceabout1,000kg.ofplutoniumannually.Between7and98millionkgofplutoniumwouldthereforebeproducedperyearandwouldbeshippedhitherandyonbetweenthevariousfacilitieswhichconstitutethenuclearpowerfuelcycle.Thecommercializationofplutoniumwouldcreatemajorhazardsbecauseofitsincredibletoxicityanditspotentialuseinweapons.Atypicalshipmentwouldcontain250kgsotherewouldbeabout40,000shipmentsannually.About10kg.ofplutoniumisneededtoconstructanatomicbomb." Nuclearisnotdirectlysuitableforaircraftandvehicles ,andadaptingnucleartomakehydrogenor  p otherfuelswouldbeahugeproject. Nuclearfusion isstillnotavailable,after40years'researchandbillionsofdollarsinvested.Magnetic $t ConfinementFusionspending:      http://plasma.ep.wisc.edu/ufa/News/enews_021499.htmlG|       ݀"OnFeb.1,the 3 DepartmentofEnergyreleasedit'sproposed budget forFY2000.Overall,DOE'sbudgetisproposed  togofrom$17.4billioninFY99to$18.1billioninFY2000.DOE'sOfficeofScience(thenewhomeoftheFusionEnergyScienceprogram)isproposedtogofrom$2.698billioninFY1999to$2.835billioninFY2000a$137millionincrease." Fusionhistory :ExtrapolatingfromSTARPOWERtheclaimthattokamakhotfusionhasbeenongoing !q! since1950withneveranybeneficialsurprisesalongthewayandhavingspent25billiondollarsworldwide.Thelaserinertialconfinementfusionprogramhasbeenongoingsince1970withneveranybeneficialsurprisesalongthewayandhavingspent10billiondollarsworldwide.      http://www.newphys.se/elektromagnum/physics/LudwigPlutonium/File135.htmlY        j%  Fusion prospects: RichardE.Rowberg,Resources,Science,andIndustryDivisionApril6,2000:The _ ' NationalCouncilForScienceAndTheEnvironment      mailto:cnie@cnie.org'       ݀&      http://www.cnie.org/nle       ݀Brief !n( forCongress:"Successfuldevelopmentofafusionpowerplant,however,isprovingtobeoneofthemostdifficultscientificandtechnologicalchallenges.Althoughprogresshasbeensteady,itmaybeatleast35to50yearsbeforeanoperatingpowerplantisbuilt."́Naturalgas Proportionofglobalenergyprovidedbygas: IEO99,a1999reportbytheUSDepartmentofEnergy ''w"1 andtheInternationalEnergyAgency.See:      ݀http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo99/oil.html        '6#2  As areplacementforoil: Gasalsowillstartrunningoutfrom2020on.Demandfornaturalgasin +){$4 NorthAmericaoutstrippingsupply,especiallyaspowerutilitiestaketheremaininggastogenerateelectricity.Gasisnotsuitedforexistingjetaircraft,ship,vehicles,andequipmentforagricultureandotherproducts."Inlate1987ToledowasthefirstgovernmententityintheStateofOhio(andoneofthefirstcitiesnationally)toimplementaconsortiumuseoftransportnaturalgasresultinginadditionalsavingsof i-(: $200,000to$300,000annually."      http://www.climate.org/programs/cities/sec2/Toledo.html          USgaspricespikesexpected :GulfNewsOnline,29May,2000:Economides:"USnaturalgasprices E "definitely"willclimbto$4/Mcfthisfall,withworldoilpricesescalatingto$40/bblprobablywithinayear,unlessproducersdramaticallyincreasespendingtooffsetdepletionandtosupplygrowingdemand,aUniversityofHoustonprofessortoldreportersattheOffshoreTechnologyConferenceMondayinHouston.Butthat'snothingcomparedwithwhatwillhappenwhentherealgasShortagehitsNorthAmericawithin2or3years,saysMichaelJ.Economides,coauthorof"TheColorofOil,"abookabouttheeconomicsoftheoilandgasindustry."      http://www.gulf j  news.co.ae/16052000/BUSINESS/business16.htm        ( x   Canada :"Productionpernewwellinthewesternbasinhasslippedfroma1986peak,anddecline m   ratesareup.Asaresult,Canadawillhaveexcesspipelinecapacityofabout1.5to2billioncubicfeetperdaythisyearandwillbe"long"pipeuntil2005,Mr.FrankpredictsTransCanadafaces"significant"capacityturnbackin2002and2003",(BrianFrank,vicepresidentBPAmocoGas&PowerCanadaatTheNorthAmericanGasStrategiesConferenceMonday,April17,2000)      http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3PN4PC67C&live=true&tagid=ZZZGEK $t  AOD0C&Co        2   "Gaswillpeakin2020": Problemwithgasisthatithasadifferentdepletionprofilewithalongplateau 'w  definedbymarketandpipeline.Whentheplateauendsitendsabruptly.IthinktheUSisnowontheedgeofthiscliff."ColinCampbell,privateEmailMayJune2000.BrianFleay,at      http://www.hubbertpeak.com/gas/2       ݀"ThetwolargestresourcesnotyetinproductionareintheSahara b andNigerDelta.ItcanbesupposedthatgaspipelineswillbebuiltsoonfromtheMiddleEasttoEuropeandtheIndiansubcontinent,sothatproductionwillriseinstepsasthelinkagesaremade.Ifoneassumesa1%increaseoverthenext5yearsfollowedbya4%increasethereafterasoilbecomesexpensive,themidpointofdepletion(moreorlessthegas"HubbertPeak")wouldcomearound2018atabout120Tcf/annum.Gasreservesaremuchmoredifficulttoassessthanoil,andmuchmoresusceptibletoeconomicfactors,themostimportantofwhichistransport(pipelines/LNG).TheUSAismoredepletedthananywhereelse.Anyproposaltousenaturalgasastheprimarysubstituteforoilinthetransportationsectorrepresentsatbestatemporarysolution,andatworstadistractionofhumanindustrialresources(consumingtimeandcapital,whileoilandgasremaineconomic,toproduceafleetwhichwillthensoonbecomeobsolete,ratherthanusingtheremainingeconomicreservestocreatealastingsolution),aswellasawasteofnaturalresourcesofgreatpotentialvaluetofuturegenerations."́Hydroelectric Presentuse: 2.3%ofglobalenergysupply(1997).      http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo99/oil.htmlnyb       c [ '  As areplacementforoil: Verysmallcomparedwith40%providedatpresentbyoil.Unsuitablefor !j( aircraftandpresent722millionexistingvehicles.      http://www.iea.org/stats/files/selstats/cwtpese.htmnyb       c !))  ElectricityNotanAdequateSubstituteforoil: Itisimportanttonotethattheendproductofmany #n+ alternativeenergysourcessuchasnuclear,hydroelectricpower,wind,solar,geothermal,andtidesiselectricity,whichisnotareplacementforoilandnaturalgasintheirimportantrolesasrawmaterialforahostofproductsrangingfrompaintsandplastics,tomedicines,andinks.Butprobablythemostvitalofallusesistomakethechemicalswhicharethebasisformodernagriculture.Electricityisnosubstitute.WalterYoungquist,ConsultingGeologist      http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2/nyb       Theworldvehicle &%"0 fleetisassessedat722millionvehiclesat1stJanuary1999:      http://www.automotive '"1 online.com/TRADE/executive_summary.htmWnyb       ݀ Q(#2 ЁCoal Currentglobaluse: 24%ofglobalenergysupply.      http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo99/oil.htmlnyb       ݀  ,p'8  Asareplacementforoil: About50%to200%asheavierthanoilperenergyunit:Dr.ThomasMeyer g-(: ProfessorofPhysicsandComputerScience,CaliforniaStateUniversity,inclassnotes.Ithaslargepollutionandenvironmentalproblems,anEPRoflessthaneight,[consumesoneunitofenergytoproduceeight]andwouldrequireamassiveexpansionofcoalminingtoreplaceoilleadingtoadramaticincreaseingreenhousegasemissions."Conventionaloilrapidlydisplacedthedirectuseofcoalasanindustrialandtransportfuelbecauseofitseaseofstorageandtransport,thefinecontrolpossibleinitsvarioususesanditshighpowerweightratio.Oilisthemosteconomicallyeffectiveofallthefuels,especiallyfortransport.Contemporaryindustriesandservicesusingcoal,gasandelectricityrequirepetroleumpoweredtransporttobeeconomicallyeffectiveandviable.Theavailabilityofcheapoilisthemostcriticalfactorforthefutureofourcontemporaryworld.Notallfueltypesareeconomicallyequivalent.FortheUSAoilandgasproduce1.3to2.45timesthedollarvalueintheeconomythandoesthedirectuseofcoal,withoilprobablysuperiortogas(Halletal.1986,p.55).Coalconvertedtoelectricityproduces2.6to14.3timesthedollarvalueintheUSeconomythandoesthedirectuseofcoal(Geveretal.1991,p.269).Thatiswhyweburncoalinpowerstationstoproduceelectricityeventhoughhalftheheatenergyiswastedtotheenvironment."      http://www.istp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/07alternatives.htmlnyb        d   Largepollution&environmentalproblems: Coalburningproducesagreatdealofsolidwaste(5 Y  20%)oforiginalvolume.Asinglecoalfiredelectricplantcanproduce>1milliontonsofsolidwasteayear.(100X100x100m)      http://wwwistp.murdoch.edu.au/OilFleay/climaxingoil.html#4.2nyb       ݀"...Coalfired &  generatingstationsaremajorsourcesoftheparticulatesandozonethatmakeupsmog,acidrain,greenhousegasesandpersistenttoxinssuchasmercury.TheMinistryofEnvironmenthasindicatedthatthecurrentlevelsofparticulatesinOntario'sairareassociatedwith1800prematuredeathsand1400cardiacandrespiratoryhospitaladmissionsinOntarioeachyear."Dr.SheelaV.Basrur,MedicalOfficerofHealth,CityofToronto      http://www.city.toronto.on.ca/legdocs/1999/agendas/committees/hl/hl990406/it002.htm>nyb       ݀"Particulates J penetratedeepintolungs.Prolongedinhalationcausesarangeofrespiratoryandcardiovascularproblems,suchasemphysema,asthma,bronchitis,lungcancer,andheartdisease."SethDunn,researchassociateattheWorldwatchInstitute.      http://www.wvhighlands.org/VoiceSep99/CoalPartI.WW.Sept99Voice.htmCnyb       ݀"Coalburningpowerplantsare B amajorsourceofcarbondioxide,agreenhousegas,andaretheleadingcauseofacidrain.CoalburningpowerplantshaveaCleanAirActincentivetocleanuptheiract.Taxpayersshouldnotbefundinga$2.4billionCleanCoalprogramoradditionalcoalresearchanddevelopmentprograms"      http://www.house.gov/science/aurilio_49.htmlnyb       ݀atHouseScienceSubcommitteeOnEnergyAnd :  Environment,April9,1997 Liquidfuelsfromcoal: SteveMorningthunder,InstitutodeFsica,UniversidadNacionalAut;nomade =# Mxico      http://208.240.253.224/page143.htm1nyb       ݀ L$ ЁSolarandwind Globalsolaruse: About0.006%ofglobalenergysupply.Energyvariesconstantlywithweatheror "* day/night.Notstorableorportableenergylikeoilornaturalgas,sounsuitedforpresentvehiclesandindustry.Batteriesbulky,expensive,wearoutin510years.Photovoltaicsolarequipment(US$4/watt)areabout15%efficient,givingabout100wattsofthe1kWpersquaremeterexposedtobrightsunshine(enoughforonelightbulb).Atypicalsolarwaterpanelarraycandeliver50%to85%ofahome'shotwaterthough.Usingsomeofourpreciousremainingcrudeoilasfuelformanufacturingsolar&windequipmentmaybewise."Thissurgeinsolarsalescomesascurrentdatashowssolarenergymakesuplessthanonepercentofglobalpowersupplies.Presently,about800megawattsofsolarpowercapacityisinplaceglobally,enoughtomeetyearlyenergyneedsfor200,000UShomes."WorldWatchInstitute,July1998      http://www.worldwatch.org/alerts/pr98716.htmlԵa.do       ݀ z)$3  Globalwindpoweruse: 0.07%of1990globalenergysupply.Aswithsolar,energyvariesgreatlywith *&5 weather,andisnotportableorstorablelikeoilandgas.EachwindturbinefromDenmarkproducedof698kWaveragedoverayear.Averagesizeofwindturbinein1998fromDenmarkWindTurbineManufacturersAssociation:      http://www.windpower.dk/stat/tab03.htma.do       ݀"Thenewwindturbinesaddedin ,J(8 1998havepushedoverallwindgeneratingcapacityworldwideto9,600megawattsattheendofthis -)9 yeardoublethecapacityinplacethreeyearsearlier....Thesewindturbineswillgenerateroughly21billionkilowatthoursofelectricityin1999enoughfor3.5millionsuburbanhomes.Windpowerisnowtheworld'sfastestgrowingenergysource.."      ݀http://www.worldwatch.org/alerts/pr98716.htmla.do        ,|  Totalglobalenergyuse: 13.7terawattsin1990(terawattisamillionmegawatts.;r  ;r`X ;r      ݀     `XX`;r X`  PaulR.Ehrlichand q AnneH.Ehrlich      http://www.npg.org/forums/ehrlich.htma.do       ݀PaulEhrlichisProfessorofPopulationStudies, R StanfordUniversity,AnneHowlandEhrlichisaseniorresearchassociateinbiologyandassociatedirectoroftheCenterforConservationBiologyatStanford. Photovoltaicsolarpanels: US$4perwatt,averagewholesalepriceforsolarmodulein1995.  c        http://www.alfenterprises.com/SolarIndex.htmla.do         "   Solarwaterheaters: FloridaSolarEnergyCenter:  g        http://www.fsec.ucf.edu/Solar/APPS/SDHW/EN5.HTM4a.do       Cumulativegeneratingcapacityworldwidetopped  &  10000Megawatts(MW)in1998.Manufacturersinstalledmorethan2400MWofwindgeneratingcapacityworldwidelastyearandexpecttoinstallanother2000MWin1999.InvestmentinwindgeneratingcapacityexceededUS$3billionin1998forthefirsttime.      http://www.chelseagreen.com/Wind/articles/Overview.htmIa.do          ЁHydrogen Currentglobaluse: 23billioncu.ftadayin1998.(Wasquotedathttp://buscom.com/editors/RC  219.html) cConversioncalculatorat      http://www.hionsolar.com/nheq1.htmla.do       ݀(1cu.ft=0.0000466barrelofcrudeoil.) c j  Asareplacementforoil: Existingvehiclesandaircraftandexistingdistributionsystemsarenotsuited _ toit."Hydrogen,whileveryabundantonearth,almostneverexistsasafreegas,sootherhydrogencompoundsneedtobetreatedinordertomakehydrogengas.Currentlythetreatmentofmethanewithsteamisusedtoproducethehydrogengas(CH4(g)+H2O=3H2(g)+CO(g))(Zumdahl,1997)but  thisreactionrequiresalotofenergytomakethehydrogengas.Itiscurrentlymoreeconomicaltosimplyburnthemethaneinsteadofusingittogetthehydrogenusedforfuel.Inaddition,thismethodofachievinghydrogenendorsesarelianceuponnaturalgasaswellasproducingCarbonMonoxideasabyproduct."      http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/~sustain/global/sensem/Forrest98.htma.do       ݀Liquidhydrogenoccupies " eleventimesthespaceofequivalentgasolineor_diesel:      _http://www.energy.ca.gov/afvs/vehicles.html#500ja.do       _ԀDavid_Pimentel_Ԁstatesonpg.212ofFood,Energy,and ^$ Society,revisededition"thatthevolumeofhydrogenfuelisabout4timesgreaterforthesameenergycontentofgasoline(8000kcal/literversus2030kcal/liter)."́Othersourcesofenergy Options: Shale,tarsand,_coalbed_Ԁmethane,ethanol,_biomass_Ԁ(fromvegetation),etc. Y#,  Effectivenessasreplacementsforoil: Hugeinvestmentinresearchandinfrastructuretoexploitthem, $. pluslargeamountsofnowexpiringoilsupply.6%ofUSgasisfromnonconventionalgeneration.Themajorproblemisthattheycannotbeexploitedbeforetheoilshockscrippleattemptstobringthemonline,andtherateofextractionisfartooslowtomeetthehugeglobalenergydemand..Example,Canadianoilsands:"Ithinktheproblemwithextractingtarsandsetc.isnotexactlyeconomics.Itisjustsuchaveryslowprocesssoitcannotdelivernearlyenoughtocompensate.Canadawouldbeblackwithdumptrucks."(_Colin_ԀCampbell,June2000inprivateEmail)Also,      _http://hubbert.mines.edua.do       _Ԁ:Shale )e$4 OilTheElusiveEnergybyWalterL._Youngquist_."Thereisnooilinsocalledshaleoil.Theorganicmaterialisaprecursortooilandisshortofhydrogen.Afterhundredsofmillionsofdollarsattemptingtoexploitshale,thirteencompanies,includingbigoilcorporations,havegivenuptheirshaleinterests.")-""""TD@z<x 0 @@E\-xX\-xHowitwillaffectus -));  Grainproduction: "Foodgrainsproducedwithmodern,highyieldmethods(includingpackagingand  delivery)nowcontainbetweenfourandtencaloriesoffossilfuelforeverycalorieofsolarenergy.Ithasbeenestimatedthataboutfourpercentofthenation'senergybudgetisusedtogrowfood,whileabout10to13percentisneededtoputitonourplates.Inotherwords,astaggeringtotalof17percentofAmerica'senergybudgetisconsumedbyagriculture!"p.172,      BEYOND_OIL, !lori       _Ԁ_Gever_Ԁetal.;Univ.Pr.  Colorado1991. Percentageofgrainconsumedbycattle: 70%(USDepartmentofAgricultureEconomicResearch   Service)Agivenquantityofgraineatendirectlywillfeed5timesasmanypeopleasitwillifitisfirstfedtolivestockandtheniseatenindirectlybyhumansintheformoflivestockproducts(M.E._Ensminger_,Ph.D.,internationallyrecognizedanimalagriculturespecialist)      http://www.mcspotlight.org/media/reports/beyond.html#5_lori       "If_Ԁthefertilizers,partialirrigation[inpart    providedbyoilenergy],andpesticideswerewithdrawn,cornyields,forexample,woulddropfrom130bushelsperacretoabout30bushels.":      _http://dieoff.com/page185.htmlori       _ԀNote,thatdrasticdropwouldonly "r  affectaminorityofUSagriculture.      _http://dieoff.org/page40.htmlori       _Ԁstates:"IntheUnitedStates,surface 0  watersuppliesabout60%ofthewaterusedinirrigation,withtheremaindercomingfromgroundwatersupplies." Numberofcats&dogsinUSA: 131million      _$$    $$##""!!     #". AccordingtoPhilipK._Verleger_,Jr.:"Nopersonhashadagreaterinfluenceonthethinkingofexpertswhohavebecomegovernmentregulatorsoftheworld'soilandgasindustriesthan_Morry_Ԁ_Adelman_."[[23]]If_Verleger_Ԁisright,thengovernmentregulatorsallovertheworldaregoingtobeinbigtroublesoonbecauseaccordingtoeconomist_Adelman_:"Mineralsareinexhaustibleandwillneverbedepleted.Astreamofinvestmentcreatesadditionstoprovedreserves,averylargeingroundinventory,constantlyrenewedasitisextracted...Howmuchwasinthegroundatthestartandhowmuchwillbeleftattheendareunknownandirrelevant."[24]ThequoteisonpageXIofhisbook,TheEconomicsof )U$5 PetroleumSupply,published1993.)"Thisabsoluteconfidenceinmoneyignoresthefactthatoilisa )%6 physicalrealityandthatoilcanbe,andisbeingexhausted.Toillustrate:IfMr._Adelman_Ԁweresealedinawoodencratewithoneloafofbreadandabriefcasefullofmoneyfortwomonths,moneywouldnotreplacethebreadoncehehadeatenit.Itiseasytolosesightofphysicalrealitieswhendealingmainlywiththeoreticalideas."        E1` hp x (#XE8  Note:"TheUSAhastheexceptionalpositionasthelargestandagrowingimporter.USimports .P)< denysomebodyelseaccesstooil.Forexample,starvingAfricansresult.TaxongasolineislowerintheUSAthaninothercountriesbyalargefactor.SotheUScouldeasilycurbitsexcess.Infactithasnooption.TheworstthingtheUScandoispressOPECtoincreaseproduction,whichwillsimplymakethepeakhigherandthedeclinesteeper.Itisjustdiggingitselfintoabiggerhole,moralityapart."_Colin_ԀCampbell,inprivateEmail,June2000. !! %EMG/9      H.` hp x (#,` XHMoreinformation Documentedevidence: Thissheet,andallreferencesandauthoritiesforthisinformationareavailable  C  fordownloadbytemporarilyjoiningthe_RunningOnEmpty_Ԁinternetforummentionedbelow.In_MyGroups_page,clicktheFilessection.Itisamongthefirstfiles. p   Websites: Theoildieoffisexplainedinuptodatedetailat      _www.hubbertpeak.comiJ        ,_Ԁand         _www.dieoff.orgWK        _ԀBothsitesarekeywordsearchable,withscientificandoilindustryliteratureaboutthis t  topic.Itisheavilyannotatedwithauthoritativereferences. Discussionforum Technical/scientific:       _www.egroups.com/group/energyresourcesM        _ w   Discussionforum Implications,action:      _www.egroups.com/group/RunningOnEmpty0N        _   Authorofthissheet:Bruce_Thomson_Ԁ (moderatorof_RunningOnEmpty_Ԁforumat  U        _www.egroups.com/group/RunningOnEmptyO        ) _Ԁandhelpedby membersofthosegroups.  _ COPYTHISITEMFREELYTOOTHERS (Lastlinkcheck001212)   [ :      _http://greatchange.orgmQ         1 _